Paper: Tracking Foundational Learning through a Zero-Word Reading Indicator
Abstract
This feasibility study examines whether a zero-word reading indicator—the percentage of children in Grades 2 or 3 (or approximately age 8–9) who cannot read a single word—can serve as a practical tool for tracking foundational learning in African contexts. The motivation for this work stems from the limitations of the World Bank’s “learning poverty” measure, which relies largely on Grade 6 assessments, excludes many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and uses proficiency thresholds that are difficult to communicate to non-specialists. A zero-word measure offers a simpler, more intuitive alternative that could provide an early warning signal of learning deficits, particularly in low-performing systems.
The study reviews the feasibility of constructing such an indicator using existing data sources (MICS, PASEC, EGRA, and national assessments) and considers the implications for comparability across different types of surveys. The findings suggest that while meaningful continental coverage is not yet possible, upcoming improvements to the MICS FLS module, the release of PAL’s ICAR results, and the expansion of PASEC in 2026 will create a stronger basis for measurement. Challenges remain around age versus grade alignment, language of assessment, and data access, but with modest refinements, a zero-word indicator could become a feasible, interpretable, and impactful complement to existing SDG reporting on foundational learning.