Type | Website Document |
Title | Did the TERS policy save jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic? |
Author(s) | |
URL | https://www.econ3x3.org/article/did-ters-policy-save-jobs-during-covid-19-pandemic |
Abstract | Two years have passed since the inception of the Temporary Employer-Employee Relief Scheme (TERS). By April 2022, the policy had benefited 5.7 million workers (61 – 70% of the formal, private employed population in 2020) at a cost of R64 billion. Now that the government is preparing to wind down the policy, the question is whether it succeeded in achieving its primary aim of saving jobs? To our knowledge little to no research has been conducted in this regard, but in our recently-published journal article, we seek to provide some answers. We show that the TERS benefited millions of workers, and that receipt was highest during the most stringent lockdown levels. We document significant changes in the recipient population over time and show that the distribution of receipt and benefits were relatively distribution-neutral. Although not causal, we find evidence that TERS receipt is associated with an 18.1 percentage point increase in the probability of job retention, but only during the initial ‘hard’ lockdown period. Our findings highlight the potential of wage subsidies to mitigate job loss and should be kept in mind when considering how to provide targeted support to workers during future crises. |