| Type | Working Paper - Society for the Study of Economic Inequality | 
| Title | Estimating intergenerational income mobility on sub-optimal data: A machine learning approach | 
| Author(s) | |
| Volume | 2020 | 
| Issue | 526 | 
| Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2020 | 
| URL | http://www.ecineq.org/milano/WP/ECINEQ2020-526.pdf | 
| Abstract | Much of the global evidence on inter-generational income mobility is based on sub-optimal data.In particular,  two-stage techniques are widely used to impute parental incomes for analyses of  developing  countries  and  for  estimating  long-run  trends  across  multiple  generations  and historical periods.  We propose a machine learning method that may improve the reliability and comparability of such estimates.  Our approach minimizes the  out-of-sample prediction error  in  the  parental  income  imputation,  which  provides  an  objective  criterion  for  choosing across different specifications of the first-stage equation.  We apply the method to data from the United States and South Africa to show that under common conditions it can limit the bias generally associated to mobility estimates based on imputed parental income. |