Abstract |
We use newly-released South African data to present the first estimates of COVID-19-related employment and poverty impacts in a developing country. We observe a 40% decline in active employment. Half of this comprises job terminations, suggesting persistent labor market effects. Initially vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected. Exploiting the dataset's panel dimension and comparing lockdown incomes of job losers to re-weighted job retainers, we estimate that 20-33% of job losers fall into poverty. Only 20% of those temporarily not working received the intended relief, while a third of job losers had no access to any major form of social protection. |