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Type Thesis or Dissertation - Master's thesis
Title A multi-regional adaptation of the ASSA 2008 AIDS and Demographic Model for population projections
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2013
The traditional models used in population projections rely on the net migration method.The ASSA2008 AIDS and Demographic model is one such model. In this research, the nine provinces and the four population groups are aggregated to give rise to three regions. Using STATA12, the directional migration tables for the years covering the period 1996-2007 between the three regions, by age and sex, based on a 10% sample of the 2001 Census and a 2.5% sample of the 2007 Community Survey, are produced. Using MATLAB 2011a with built-in Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with nonlinear least squares methods, Rogers-Castro multi-exponential age schedules are fitted to the census/survey migration data in order to obtain parameters used to estimate migration rates in the model for the period 1996-2007. After 2007, migration rates areextrapolated roughly linearly, assuming that migration will trend towards zero over a fixed number of years. The multi-regional adaptation of the ASSA model is tested and found to work, with a minor re-calibration to the HIV data for 2008. The projected regional population age structure and size implied by the model for 1996-2025 are consistent with the same estimates implied by the net migration model, and so are the projected net migration rates per 1,000.

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